Why Smart People Still Waste Time on the Wrong Projects
Why You Should Always Quantify the Impact of Your Projects Early in the Game
One of the biggest mistakes we often see in business improvement work in corporate environments is a reluctance — or outright failure — to quantify the potential impact of a project before it starts.
It’s common in companies of all sizes and across industries. Sometimes it’s because quantifying feels too hard. Sometimes it’s because the link between the action and the result is indirect. Sometimes it’s because people aren’t used to doing it — they’ve built careers on “delivering good work” without always needing to prove the measurable benefit.
But here’s the reality: in business improvement, quantifying potential impact is one of the most valuable habits you can develop. It changes how you choose projects, how you think about them, and how others perceive your work.
Why people skip quantification
There are a few recurring reasons why teams avoid putting a number on the potential benefit:
1. “It’s too hard to measure.”
The data might be incomplete, messy, or locked away in systems you can’t access. Sometimes there’s no direct precedent for the change you’re proposing.
2. “It’s not how we usually work.”
In many operational environments, improvement projects are chosen based on intuition, urgency, or availability of resources — not on hard business cases. The culture simply hasn’t required people to make the link to measurable results.
3. “The benefits are indirect.”
Some projects don’t create value in a straight line. They reduce risk, improve flexibility, or strengthen relationships. These benefits are real — but harder to model, so they get left as “intangibles.”
4. “It’s uncomfortable to commit to a number.”
Once you say, “This will deliver $2M in annual savings,” people will hold you to it. For many, the fear of being wrong outweighs the potential upside of making an estimate.
Easy vs. hard to quantify projects
Some projects almost make the calculation for you:
Direct-input cost reductions — negotiating a lower price for a raw material you purchase in large quantities.
Waste elimination — reducing scrap rates in a production process.
Energy efficiency upgrades — lowering electricity consumption by replacing high-energy equipment.
The link between action and benefit is short and clear. The variables are few. The data is usually in the ERP system. You can often calculate the benefit with confidence in an afternoon.
Other projects require more detective work:
Stocking more spare parts — This ties up more capital immediately, but does it reduce downtime enough to justify the cost? And if downtime does drop, how much extra output actually gets sold?
Upgrading non-bottleneck areas of a plant — More capacity in a process that wasn’t the constraint may make no difference if the true bottleneck remains elsewhere. Unless the bottleneck shifts during certain times of year, the extra capacity could sit idle.
Switching to a lower-spec input — You save money per unit purchased, but if it wears out faster or leads to more defects, the total cost of ownership could actually increase.
The harder the link, the more valuable it is to try and quantify. In these cases, the act of chasing the number forces you to map dependencies, identify assumptions, and see the system as a whole — all of which lead to better decision-making.
Beyond “easy” and “hard” — a broader typology
You can think of projects as falling into four archetypes:
Direct and Certain – Clear, well-understood link to value. Easy to model. (e.g., renegotiating a fixed-price contract)
Direct but Uncertain – Clear link to value, but magnitude depends on volatile inputs. (e.g., energy efficiency where savings depend on weather patterns)
Indirect but Certain – Indirect link to value, but evidence supports the outcome. (e.g., safety measures proven to reduce incident rates)
Indirect and Uncertain – Both the link and the magnitude are hard to model. (e.g., cultural change programs, innovation capability building)
This mental model helps you decide how much effort to put into the quantification and how much weight to give the result.
Six reasons why it’s worth the effort
Outside the Direct and Certain examples provided earlier, it is fair to say that quantifying the benefits of your projects requires some hard work. So why do it? Below are some of the most compelling reasons, based on our lived experience from the last 15 years in this space.
1. Prioritisation
Quantification makes it obvious which projects deserve your attention — and which don’t. With limited time and budget, this is non-negotiable.
2. Sharper thinking
To put a number on something, you must articulate how it connects to a value driver: cost, revenue, or risk. This often reveals flaws or blind spots in the project logic.
3. Speaking the language of decision-makers
Executives don’t buy into projects because they “sound good.” They buy in when the value is clear and easy to compare against other opportunities on the table.
4. Tracking and accountability
Without a baseline estimate, you can’t know if the project delivered what was promised. And if you do track, you can demonstrate your team’s impact in concrete terms.
5. Investment yardstick
An initiative might deliver $500k in benefits — but if it costs $2M to implement, it’s a poor investment. Quantification exposes these mismatches early.
6. Career perception
Being able to place your project in the broader universe of company priorities signals strategic thinking. People notice.
How to start, even when it’s hard
You don’t need perfect data or absolute certainty. Start with:
Defining the value driver — Is this about reducing cost, increasing revenue, lowering risk, or freeing capacity?
Mapping the chain of cause and effect — Step through how your action leads to the result, and identify where assumptions live.
Using ranges — If you’re unsure, give a low/likely/high estimate and explain what would drive each scenario.
Flagging dependencies — Call out what else must happen for the benefit to materialise (e.g., sales must find buyers for extra output).
Documenting assumptions — This builds credibility and helps refine the estimate later.
Over time, these steps become second nature — and your projects will be better chosen, better executed, and better recognised.
Final thought
Even an imperfect estimate is better than none. The process of quantifying impact forces clarity, aligns stakeholders, and positions you as someone who sees beyond the immediate task to the bigger picture.
In business improvement, that’s not just a skill — it’s a competitive advantage.