The One-Pager Every Strategic Advisor Needs
Why a simple from/to waterfall is the most powerful tool for launching any change program
There’s a temptation in strategy and transformation work to overcomplicate things right from the start. Senior teams commission market analyses, consultants create thick slide decks, and middle managers get buried in roadmaps, charters, and RACI matrices. Yet in the noise of program design, one crucial question often gets overlooked:
Where exactly are we trying to go — and how do the pieces of our program add up to get us there?
That is why we believe every strategic advisor should carry one tool in their back pocket: the from/to waterfall. It’s a single-page diagram that captures your baseline performance, the portfolio of initiatives you’re proposing, the estimated impact of each, and the end-state target.
This one-pager is not just a visualisation. It’s a forcing mechanism: it makes you pick a metric, estimate value, and subject your logic to scrutiny. And when used well, it becomes both the North Star and the treasure map for the change journey.
Why a waterfall?
The brilliance of the waterfall is its simplicity. Start with a baseline — say, $500 million in annual revenue. Then stack up the estimated impact of each initiative: new product lines, pricing improvements, operational efficiencies, customer churn reductions, cost takeouts. Each “bar” on the waterfall moves you from today’s state (“from”) to the future state (“to”).
Unlike a table of numbers, the waterfall forces a narrative: Here’s where we are today. Here’s what we need to achieve. Here are the moves we think will get us there. Do they add up?
Executives rarely rally behind 80-page slide decks. But a single page that shows “baseline → initiatives → outcome” is hard to ignore.
Below is a step-by step guide for how to create this critical one-pager.
Step 1: Pick the right metric
The first trap to avoid is metric sprawl. A change program can touch dozens of KPIs: cost per unit, NPS, employee attrition, gross margin, inventory turns. But for your waterfall to have impact, you must anchor on one metric that matters most for the program.
For a new growth strategy, the anchor metric might be revenue or market share.
For an operational excellence program, it’s often EBITDA margin or cost savings.
For a customer experience transformation, you might choose retention rate or lifetime value.
The chosen metric should pass two tests: (1) senior leaders actually care about it, and (2) it can translate the disparate projects into a common currency.
We once saw a global bank run a $200m customer experience program measured by “number of digital features launched.” Unsurprisingly, the program quickly lost credibility. When they reframed it around cost-to-serve per customer and digital adoption rate, it became clear which projects actually mattered.
Step 2: Estimate the baseline
Next, define the starting point. This doesn’t need to be perfect — “roughly right” is enough.
For example, say you’re working with a consumer goods company launching a new growth strategy. The current baseline: $1.2 billion in annual revenue. Everyone may argue whether it’s $1.18 or $1.23 billion, but for the purpose of the waterfall, that detail is irrelevant. The waterfall is about directional sense-making, not accounting precision.
What matters is that the baseline is accepted as “close enough to reality” so you can start building the story.
Step 3: Brainstorm all the ideas
Here’s where creativity enters. In a workshop with leaders and stakeholders, list every initiative that could drive the change program. No filtering yet — just generate options.
In a cost program, this might include vendor renegotiation, warehouse automation, headcount optimization, SKU rationalization, and energy efficiency.
In a growth program, it might include new product launches, digital marketing campaigns, channel expansion, and pricing changes.
Quantity precedes quality here. You want enough raw material to later assess relative value.
Step 4: Estimate the value of each idea
Now comes the strategic advisor’s most delicate move: putting a number on each initiative.
Again, the goal is not precision but plausibility. For example:
“SKU rationalization” → $25 million annual savings, based on prior benchmarks.
“New premium product line” → $60 million revenue, based on 5% penetration of existing customers.
“Improve customer retention by 3 percentage points” → $40 million revenue preserved.
The key is to tie every estimate back to the chosen metric. You can use industry benchmarks, internal pilot results, or back-of-the-envelope math. What matters is that you avoid “number-free strategy.”
Step 5: Build the waterfall
This is the fun part. Starting with the baseline, stack each initiative’s impact up or down.
Revenue strategy? Baseline $1.2b → new products +$60m → retention +$40m → channel expansion +$100m → final “to” state $1.4b.
Operational excellence? Baseline cost $2.0b → vendor renegotiation –$80m → automation –$50m → headcount optimization –$40m → new baseline $1.83b.
The visual reveals instantly whether the program is ambitious enough, credible, or padded with fluff.
Step 6: See if the end-state looks attractive
When you step back, does the “to” state look compelling enough for leadership to back?
If a five-year transformation only shifts revenue from $1.2b to $1.25b, it’s not a transformation — it’s noise. If a cost program saves 2% but demands three years of disruption, the waterfall will expose the mismatch.
This is where many programs die, and rightly so. Better to find out on one page than after years of effort.
Step 7: Sense-check and refine
Now interrogate each bar of the waterfall. Are the big-ticket items realistic? Have you double-counted benefits? Did you overlook secondary impacts?
For example: a “pricing increase” might yield $50m in theory, but what if customer churn offsets half of that? Conversely, an automation project may deliver more than expected once scaled.
This is the stage for humility — iterate, debate, and tighten the estimates.
Step 8: Socialize with stakeholders
Before you run to the CEO, pressure test the one-pager with functional leaders. Show the supply chain head the cost program. Walk through the revenue strategy with sales and marketing.
This both improves accuracy and builds buy-in. When leaders see their fingerprints on the page, they are more likely to champion the program later.
Step 9: Present to decision-makers
Now you’re ready for the top table. Resist the urge to bring 50 slides. Put the one-pager waterfall up front. Explain the baseline, walk through each bar, land on the outcome.
Senior executives don’t want a tour of your spreadsheet logic. They want to know: Do the initiatives add up to the goal? Where are the big bets? What’s the level of risk?
The waterfall answers those questions in seconds.
Step 10: Use it as your treasure map
Once the program is approved, the waterfall shifts from proposal to navigation tool. Each bar represents a workstream, each workstream has an owner, and the whole picture shows what success looks like.
As the program unfolds, you can track whether initiatives deliver the expected impact. Adjustments can be mapped back to the waterfall: if one project underdelivers, which others can pick up the slack?
It’s not just a launch tool; it’s an execution compass.
Examples from different industries
To make this concrete, let’s look at three different types of change programs.
1. New Strategy (Growth)
A mid-size software company wanted to double revenue in five years. Baseline: $500m. Initiatives: launch two new product modules (+$150m), expand into Europe (+$120m), upsell premium tier (+$80m), reduce churn 5% (+$50m). The waterfall showed a “to” state of ~$900m — not quite doubling, but close. Leadership decides to greenlight and add M&A as a further lever.
2. Operational Excellence
A chemicals manufacturer faced declining margins. Baseline EBITDA margin: 12%. Initiatives: raw material sourcing optimization (+2pp), energy efficiency (+1pp), plant automation (+1.5pp), SG&A reduction (+1pp). Waterfall “to” state: 17.5%. The one-pager convinces leadership to invest heavily in automation because it clearly drives the biggest uplift.
3. Customer Experience Transformation
A bank wanted to improve NPS and retention. Baseline customer attrition: 20% annually. Initiatives: new mobile app experience (+3pp retention), improved call center response (+2pp), proactive outreach for at-risk customers (+2pp). The waterfall showed attrition dropping to 13%. The CFO translates that into $100m annual revenue preserved — suddenly customer experience becomes a financial story.
Why advisors love it (and clients do too)
The from/to waterfall works because it:
Forces clarity on goals and metrics.
Translates big, abstract programs into a single number.
Surfaces whether the ambition matches the aspiration.
Provides a shared language for executives from different functions.
Fits on one page — and therefore gets remembered.
Every advisor should have one in their toolkit. It doesn’t replace detailed analysis, but it comes before it. Without a credible one-pager, all the spreadsheets in the world won’t win hearts or budgets.
Closing thought
Change programs fail for many reasons: lack of buy-in, weak execution, shifting priorities. But the most fundamental failure is launching without a clear, shared, quantified vision of what success looks like.
The from/to waterfall is not glamorous. It’s not the sexiest chart in your deck. But it’s the single most powerful way to answer the question: Where are we going, and how are we getting there?
As an advisor or a change manager, if you can produce that one-pager early in the journey, you’ll find that everything else — stakeholder alignment, funding, accountability, even morale — becomes much easier.